Daily Long Term Moving Average↑ (1.3908 today) managed to act as Support in recent downmove, with pair above Triangle pattern, but near apex..gif)
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
FX And Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Where correction is possible.
Break would give 1.3767, where correction also may be.
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AUD/USD Overview
Price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has made a third bounce up off a key uptrend support line extending from the March lows.
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London Session Update
The FOMC statement provided the lead for early London hours, disappointment over the absence of an extension of the asset buying plan pushed down stocks and supported the USD in a reversal of the trends initiated in Asian hours..gif)
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Higher US petrol Inventories Send WTI Down
Yesterday Brent added and WTI eased after U.S. inventories showed contradictory results.
Crude stockpiles dropped by 3.8 mln.b in the week up to June 19 exceeding market forecasts of a 1 mln.b drop.
GBP Fell Against The USD And The EUR On Wednesday
The British Pound fell against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said he had serious concerns about how quickly the UK economy may recover.
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US Bond Yields Rose Following The Statement
The US Federal Reserve decided, as expected, to maintain the fed funds rate at the current target range of 0.00-0.25% and leave the size, timing and scope of its security purchase programmes unchanged.
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Asia Session Update
After a strong run overnight in NY, the Dollar lost its grip in Asia, giving back ground to all but the Yen which faced perils of its own as stocks posted a second day of gains and traders looked to get back into riskier assets..gif)
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The Indices Had A Wild And Wooly Day
The indices had a wild and wooly day. They gapped up, ran hard in the morning on positive premarket futures, were then spurred higher by positive housing news and then went into mid-day consolidation in preparation for the FOMC announcement.
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The UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares Has Declined
Since yest. 's high, the UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (NYSE: SDS) has declined from near the top of its June price channel (59.50-60.00), to the bottom of the channel in the vicinity of 56.40..gif)
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US Dollar Trading In A Wide Range
USD continued to trade in a wide range with the market selling USD ahead of the FOMC only to buy them back after a less dovish than expected statement..gif)
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USD Rose Against European Currencies On Wednesday
The greenback rose against European currencies on Wednesday as the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected but removed the warning that inflation could be undesirably low.
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GBP Traded Higher Supported In Cross Trade
USD traded mixed in pre FOMC trade rebounding from multiday lows against the EUR and CHF.
USD was supported by rumors that the SNB intervened to weaken the CHF.
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Lack Of Definitions Ahead Of FOMC
Nikkei 225 opened to the upside past Tuesday, sending Europeans up against dollar as renewed optimism was seen in early Asia, after also, a better than expected Japanese Yen Trade Balance surplus.
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UK Retailers Remained Weak In June
The volume of sales at U.K. retailers remained weak in June, fueled by sharp drops in household goods sales and clothing, the Confederation of British Industry said Thursday.
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US New Home Sales Unexpectedly Drop In May
New-home sales unexpectedly fell in May as Americans afraid of losing their jobs stayed out of the market or settled for a cheaper house discounted by foreclosure.
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Euro Trades Around 1.3980
The Euro is picking up after yesterday's 240 pip decline, and 1.3885 low on Asian session, the Euro trades around 1.3980 ahead of the European markets opening.
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GBP/USD Current Price 1.6452
Sterling remains in the wide daily range
Correcting to the upside, pair remains still in the wide daily range of the past two weeks.
USD/JPY Current Price 95.82
Pair seems to have bottomed just under 95.00 and with stocks rising in Asia supporting the bullish perspective, pair seems ready to retest the 96.00 level.
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USD/CHF Is Now Below 1.1000
USD/CHF is now below 1.1000 after testing intra-day highs at 1.1020 for the second time in the sesionl after the released of the FOMC decision.
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CAD Is Rising Today
USD/CAD falls 0.50% so far the today
The Canadian Dollar is rising today benefit from higher oil prices.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
GBP Weakness To Help Mitigate Poor Global Outlook
The weakness of the pound will help the U.K. economy mitigate the poor global outlook, while evidence is emerging that the Bank of England's Asset Purchase Facility is having a positive effect, BOE Governor Mervyn King said Wednesday.
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EUR/USD Outlook
EUR/USD: 1.4092
Despite euro's intra-day firmness in part due to cross buying vs yen, as y'day's rise fm 1.3828 is losing momentum, reckon strg beyond 1.4107/09 is unlikely n 1.4120/30 shud cap upside, yield a minor correction later.
USD/JPY Outlook
USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 95.10
Although dlr's o/n selloff to 94.88 after early strg rebound to 95.89 signals recent 'erratic' fall remains in force n as long as 95.51 (previous sup) holds, a re-test of said sup is likely, loss of momentum shud keep price abv 94.44 in Asia.
Currency Majors Technical Analysis
1,4060. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement.
Bollinger bands are flat.
Silver Technical Outlook
Silver's sidewya trading from 13.595 is still in progress and with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment.
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Forex Thoughts
Dollar-Swiss rose sharply after recording a low of 1.0632 and is now targeting a rise towards 1.1000.
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Forex Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
Current level-1.4125
EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008).
The GBP Fell 0.9 % Against The EUR
On Tuesday the USD fell the most in six weeks against the EUR as market participants expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25 % at the end of its policy meeting today
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Euro Technical Analysis
EUR
Comment: As we had warned last week, the potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ has a strong chance of not panning out as it should.
EURUSD Overview
EURUSD ex-resistance line at 1.3997 was broken and positive trend has started, for now to break this trend, bears needs to push prices at least to the 1.3990 price level.
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Euro's Bullish Break Did Not Take Place
EUR
The pre-planned break-out variant for buyers has been implemented but with the achievement of main estimated targets.
Currency Technical Perspective
Bullish Hourly Sentiment is seen as Price finds a potential Hourly Double-Top at 1.4110 Daily Static Resistance if the Area is Seen and Held.
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Currency Technical Analysis
1,4097. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement.
The volatility decreases.
Forex | FOMC Due
In light trading, risk appetite has stabilized with USD weakening, while equities and commodities temporarily halted their downside slide.
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GBP Extended Gains On Tuesday
The British Pound extended gains on Tuesday, hitting a high since early December against the euro, which came under broad pressure ahead of the European Central Bank's first one-year refinancing operation.
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London Session Update
As calmer conditions extended, stock markets have pushed higher aided by better earnings in the tech sector and an upturn in commodity prices.
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Greenback Fell The Most In 2 Weeks Against The EUR
The U.S. Dollar went bearish against most major currencies on Tuesday, as uncertainty ahead of today's Federal Funds Rate announcement put the USD under strong selling pressure.
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EUR Rose 1.6% Against The USD
The EUR rose 1.6% against the Dollar to $1.4075 in late afternoon trading yesterday, after hitting a session peak of $1.4109.
The Japanese currency Fell Sharply On Tuesday
The Japanese currency fell sharply on Tuesday, falling against most of its major currency pairs, tumbling from creeping doubts about the sustainability of any economic recovery.
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Crude Oil Prices Rose Nearly 4%
Crude Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Tuesday to $68.59, as the U.S Dollar weakened and disruptions from OPEC member Nigeria stoked supply concerns.
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Forex Technical Analysis 06.24.2009
EUR/USD
The pair reached as high as the 1.4100 level today, before dropping down to the 1.4080 level.
TLTs Continue to Climb
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continue to act well, suggesting equity traders might be getting increasingly afraid of something... and need to buy some safety.
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USD/JPY Presses Lower
EUR/USD – Although the head & shoulders top is taking its time to play out, the overall structure still looks quite toppish and we anticipate a fresh drop below 1.3750 over the coming days to expose the measured move objective by 1.3250 further down.
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Asia Session Update
After a turbulent 24 hours that saw the US Dollar and Yen get decimated as commodities made gains and risk trades came back in vogue, Asia saw calm waters and small ranges in the Dollar as it remained steady ahead of tomorrows FOMC.
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USD Dropped Sharply Against Major Currencies
The dollar dropped sharply against major currencies after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and also on speculation that the Fed will continue to keep rates near recent low level.
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US Dollar Traded Lower, Existing Home Sales Rise
USD traded lower Tuesday pressured by a slight improvement in risk appetite as European and US equity markets rebound and US existing home sales rise.
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US Market Update | Euro Aproaching To Range Roof
Market remained choppy and a bit brutal since Asian opening, with positioning across the boards provoking wide movements either way.
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Euro Zone Current Account Deficit Narrows In April
The euro zone's current account deficit narrowed for the fifth consecutive month in April, with the combined direct and portfolio investment registering a net outflow, data from the European Central Bank showed Wednesday.
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UK Mortgage Lending Slowed
U.K. mortgage lending slowed for the third straight month to an eight-year low in May, data from the British Bankers Association showed Tuesday.
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Japan May Crude Imports Fall 18.8%
Japan's imports of crude oil and condensate in May fell 18.8% on year to 15 million kiloliters, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday.
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U.S. Overall Consumer Confidence Fell Last Week
U.S. overall consumer confidence fell last week, according to an ABC News poll released Tuesday.
The consumer comfort index fell four points to -53 in the week ended June 21, from -49 a week earlier.
Euro Has Been Moving Sideways
The Euro has been moving sideways, in a range from 1.4060 to 1.4110, consolidating after having rallied about 270 pips yesterday, from intra-day low at 1.3825 to 1.4110.
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GBP Rally From 1.6205 Low On Tuesday
The Pound rally from 1.6205 low on Tuesday has extended to an intra-week high at 1.6595, reaching the top of the trading range, from 1.6185 to 1.6620 the Pound has been trading for around two weeks.
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USD Bounced Yesterday At 94.87
The Dollar bounced yesterday at 94.87 and the pair has been appreciating during Asian session to reach an intra-day high at 95.65 to ease to levels around 95.0 ahead of the European session opening.
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Aussie Dollar Has Yet To Breach Above The .8000
The Aussie has rallied all the way to test 0.8000 resistance level on early European session after bouncing yesterday at 0.7790, recovering most of the ground lost during the current week.
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USD/CHF Decline From 1.0880
The USD/CHF decline from 1.0880 in the early European session has continued to break 1.0835 (MA200 hourly chart) and 1.0765 supports to fall close to 1.0700 and post the 1.0705 as fresh 1-week low.
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Downward Pressure On Equity Futures Subsided
A confluence of technical and fundamental factors have contributed to Tuesday's decline in the US Dollar Index.
Risk aversion began to ease the moment Asian equity markets closed, as downward pressure on equity futures subsided.
Spot Gold, Oil July Contract And USD/JPY Update
Gold bounced right off the longer term 61.8% level of 912.88 to the 925 resistance and beyond but did not break 927.65 and so headed back to 922.
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US Dollar Was Sharply Weaker Across The Board
EURUSD rushed all the way back above 1.4000 resistance and on to the 1.4100+ level and AUDUSD rebounded sharply after a push down through the important 0.7850 area the previous day.
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GBP/USD Outlook
Cable held up well and came sharply higher to 1.6475.
Now if buyers can break above this resistance this morning look for the market to come higher with 1.6515 targeted.
USD Fell On Tuesday
The greenback fell on Tuesday as economic data showed more signs of a global economic recovery.
US existing home sales rose for a second month in May, but the gain was slightly less than expected.
GBP/USD Chart Update
Today the currency market can best be described as a combination of mirage, mischief and mayhem in equal measure and a circus to boot with the two ringmasters of the ECB and the Federal Reserve currently cracking the whip.
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EUR/USD Chart Update
The euro vs dollar continued to consolidate in a narrow trading range yesterday ending the day on a down bar which closed below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages and which once again tested the neckline of the recent head and shoulders.
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US Dollar Overbought Again
With global equities markets on retreat in this week’s trading start, the USD was supported by its now 9-month inverse correlation.
USDJPY | Outlook Continues To Point Lower
Weakness continues to be seen in early trading today pushing the pair further lower and opening up threats towards the 94.45 level, its Jun 01’09 low though a potential hammer is now shaping up.
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EURUSD | Still Looking To The Downside
Though seen heading towards its channel top in early trading today, EUR remains vulnerable to the downside while continuing to trade within the mentioned channel.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Oil Prices Update
Crude oil prices tumbled yesterday, along with many other commodities and markets, as a profit taking domino effect took hold and daily oil prices lost almost $3, or 4%, to finish at $67.25 per barrel, a price last seen on June 8th.
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Spot Silver Price Update
With all commodities falling hard as profit taking hit the markets silver prices too tumbled along with gold, copper and the equities and lost a total of 42 cents and breaching the $14.00 per ounce price point at the same time.
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Oil/Gold Lose Support
The US Dollar Index has benefitted from a loss of trendline support with both spot Gold and Crude Oil.
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Sour Mood In Asia Sees JPY Bulling Stronger Across The Board
The Yen responded strongly, with most JPY crosses sharply lower on the day.
AUDJPY has traded as much as 4% lower from Friday's close as perhaps the highest beta currency pair of the majors.
Spot Gold Prices Update
Spot gold experienced a sharp decline yesterday as the commodity market (along with others) was hit by a wave of profit taking and some return of Dollar strength.
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STG / EURO Technical Analysis
Stg/Euro got excited yesterday above 1.1870 but only reached 1.1900 before sellers came in and smashed this lower.
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Global Equity And Commodity Prices Fell
The USD and JPY rose on increased risk aversion after the World Bank said the global recession will be deeper than previously forecast.
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The US Dollar Currency Report
Continued weakness in the S&P adds to the accelerated selling in GBPUSD.
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EUR/GBP Chart
Friday's candle merely reinforced our view that the short squeeze of Thursday was very short lived only lasting for the morning session before prices fell back to close below the 9 day moving average creating a nice bearish candle.
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S And P 500, Mini Dow Jones And 10 Yr T.Note Update
S&P held 923 thus keeping sellers in control.
This morning it struggled at 919 and has fallen rapidly from these higher levels through to 907.10 currently.
Index Recommended Levels
where a correction may happen.
Break would result in 1884.40, where correction may be.
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ECB Ordonez | Spain Needs Strategy For Cutting Deficit
The worst of the global recession has likely passed and Spain now needs to prepare a credible strategy for reining in its spiraling budget deficit, European Central Bank Governing Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said Tuesday.
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FSA Turner | Need Joint Financial Stability Body With BOE
The head of the U.K.'s bank regulator Tuesday called for the creation of a new body to monitor the stability of the financial system that would function like the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
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Forex Technical Outlook
The euro dipped below the 1.3880 support on yesterday - the median retracement level of the 1.3455-1.4340 up leg, weakening the short-term sentiment which will remain bearish as long as the 1.4000 mark is safe from a potential breach on the upside.
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Forecast On Japanese Yen Crosses
EURJPY as expected moved lower and closed @ 13295 which was below the open.
The Hourly Oscillators are bearish and price is below the MA, so the bulls have to be Sidelined.
Forecast On US Dollar Minors
USDCHF as suggested was within prior day's trading range and closed @ 10865 which was above the open.
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Forecast On US Dollar Majors 06.23.2009
EURUSD as expected moved lower and closed @ 13870 which was below the open and within tight trading range.
ANALYSIS FOR GBPJPY
Losses have taken an extremely direct route lower and we must be aware of the possibility this will continue through to the 153.48-60 area at least.
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EUR/USD Outlook
Despite staging a minor rebound after y'day's selloff to 1.3826, as renewed selling at 1.3903 (NY high) has capped euro's upside, bearishness remans for nr term decline fm 1.4013 to head twd 1.3806 but reckon 1.3770/80 wud hold in Asia.
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JPY Rose Broadly Against The EUR And The AUD
On Tuesday the JPY rose broadly and hit a one-month high against the EUR and the AUD because investors kept cutting riskier assets.
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Gold Technical Outlook
Gold recovers mildly after touching mentioned 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9.
Further decline is still expected with 944.6 resistance intact.
EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD support and resistance lines remains in the same place, but support line is in danger and soon can be broken.
Euro Technical Analysis 06.23.2009
A waste of time as prices creep across the page around the moving averages.
Expect more of the same today.
Euro Is Still within Bearish Trend Borders
The pre-planned break-out variant for sales has been implemented but with loss in the attainment of minimal estimated target.
Currency Technical Perspective
Bearish Hourly Sentiment is seen as Price finds Depreciation from the 1.3881 Daily Pivot, with the 20SMA providing Dynamic Resistance between the 1.3832 Daily Static Support and Daily Pivot Range.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Reversal Day at 1.4339 has sent the pair back towards 1.3739 (neckline Daily Double Bottom) and tested the neckline of a Head&Shoulders top (1.3793: see graph), with daily Long Term Moving Average↑ under test (1.3873 today).
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GBP/USD Overview 06.22.2009
The uptrend is an accelerated one that began to get steeper in May, and has since been respected by at least four price touches.
The triangle has three touches to the upside and two to the downside, and is quickly approaching the triangle apex.
FX Currency Technical Analysis
1,3834. EUR USD is in a range between 1,3800 and 1,4000.
EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100).
S&P Futures Retest 900 With Negative Market Sentiment
The S&P futures are drifting lower after the World Banks slashed its expectation for global growth.
It appears as if the futures are in for another retest of 900.
Gold Makes Key Pullback
Gold is reacting negatively to the inflection point of our 2nd and 3rd tier uptrend lines.
The swift pullback in gold follows a week of tight consolidation, signifying investors are siding with the downside after a period of indecisiveness.
Crude Futures Drop With Negative Market Psychology
August Crude futures are dropping quickly in reaction to the World Bank’s downward revision of projected global growth.
A lower global growth rate implies declining production and consequently consumption of crude.
USD/JPY Balances After Positive Data
The USD/JPY has recovered nicely along our 2nd tier uptrend line while experiencing declining volume to the downside, both encouraging developments for the uptrend.
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GBP/USD Walks Along Our 3rd Tier Downtrend Line
The Cable is giving into our 3rd tier downtrend line after last week’s push was blocked by our trend line and the psychological 1.65 level on declining volume.
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EUR/USD Approaches Important Inflection Point
The collision between our 2nd tier trend lines is approaching today, indicating volatility could increase over the next few trading sessions.
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Crude Oil Drops Below $67 A Barrel
The price of Crude Oil dropped more than $2 a barrel yesterday after the World Bank estimated the world economy will contract 2.9% in 2009.
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JPY Gained Against Most Major Currencies
The Japanese Yen gained against most major currencies Monday as risk aversion returned amid political unrest in Iran and a gloomy report from the World Bank regarding expected global recovery.
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Forex Technical Analysis
The MACD on the hourly and 4-hour charts indicate bullish crosses, which support the price moving towards the convergence point and the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart appear to be tightening, which indicates imminent volatility.
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Euro Lost Against Its Major Currency Pairs Monday
The EUR lost against its major currency pairs Monday as investors returned to risk aversion after a disappointing report from the World Bank.
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The USD Gained Against Its Riskier Counterparts
Renewed concerns over the state of the global economic recovery combined with unfolding instability in Iran and North Korea brought back an air of pessimism pushing investors to safer currencies.
The Dollar was at $1.3856 per EUR following a 0.5% gain since Friday and at 95.99 Yen down from 96.23.
Oil Fell Again On Monday
Oil fell again on Monday, extending the previous session's drop as bearish sentiment over gasoline markets in U.S. continued to dominate investors' concerns.
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USD Breakout May Be Just Around The Corner
US dollar crosses remain confined to their respective ranges but a US dollar breakout may be just around the corner. 1.3750 is the breakdown level for the EURUSD.
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Asia Session Update
The Yen made gains against all of its counter currencies today in Asia as investors looked to the safety of the Japanese currency in light of concerns that the current global recession might still be far from over.
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US Bond Yields Fell Across The Curve
US equity markets followed the European markets lower and the S&P500 closed down by 3.1% – taking the index back into negative territory for the year.
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Currency Outlook
Great news for FOREX traders.
In a recent survey of experts, the forecast for the year end price of the EURUSD could be 1.16 or 1.55 depending on your choice of the experts.
Trendbreaking Down Session
The indices got hammered from the get-go, and were down all morning until early afternoon when they tried to move back.
Upside Reversal Imminet for Gold
Based on a textbook head-and-shoulders top pattern.
The downside measured target in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is 89.50, which also happens to coincide with a test of the Jan-June up trendline, now at 89.20.
USD Strengthened Against Other Major Currencies Except JPY
The greenback strengthened against other major currencies except yen on Monday as the World Bank said that the outlook for the global economy remains 'unusually uncertain',
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Falling Equities And Concern About The Global Recovery
USD firmed to start the week supported by a drop in risk appetite as global equity and commodity markets traded lower.
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Us Market Update | Choppy Market Still In Range
With Nikkei 225 falling at the open, send dollar and yen up in Asian session with yen reaching 95.78 against dollar and 133.00 zone against euro.
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Euro And Pound Weaken Further
Asian stock markets have plunged on Tuesday following sharp declines in Wall Street on Monday on the back the World bank's announce of further economic contraction for 2009.
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GBP/USD Selling Pressure Continues
GBP/USD, selling pressure continues and pair approaches to key daily ascendant trend line at 1.6280 that should hold the downside at least at a first approach, yet will be key for the pair trend:
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USD/JPY Break Ascendant Daily Trend Line
USD/JPY, Japanese yen break ascendant daily trend line, and opened current candle under it, already accomplishing a pullback.
Monday, June 22, 2009
USD/CHF's Recovery From 1.0830
The USD/CHF's recovery from 1.0830 has been capped at 1.0850 in the last hour and the pair has fallen to test 1.0850.
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US Dollar Gain Yet Still In Daily Range
Monday was a quite positive day for greenback that managed to print gains against major rivals except for Japanese yen that due to general risk aversion sentiment, appreciate along with dollar.
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Forex Thoughts
Dollar-Swiss has risen towards 1.0894 and is facing Resistance from the 200-MA (1.0892) on the 4-hourly.
The view continues to be the same that till the pair is ranged between 1.0763-1.0895, we can sell rallied and buy dips.
ANALYSIS FOR USDCAD
Friday's gains didn't manage to break out of the range seen in the last few days of last week.
However, the start today has seen breach and thus we should now see stronger gains.]
Crude Oil Technical Outlook
Crude oil dives further to as low as 67.89 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 69.93 minor resistance holds.
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Forex Technical Analysis
Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3064 and 1.3524.
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EURUSD Overview
EURUSD, like it was stated before, did reverse and this action made channel broken.
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Waiting For The Choice Of Euro's Direction
EUR
The pre-planned short positions from key range resistance levels have been implemented with the achievement of minimal estimated target.
Currency Technical Perspective
Bearish Hourly Sentiment is currently seen as Price finds Slight Depreciation from the 1.3943 Daily Pivot, as a Failed 20SMA/200SMA Bullish Cross is seen with the 20SMA and 200SMA moving in Parallel.
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Currency Technical Analysis
EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100).
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FX And Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Several words about the EUR/USD Future.
Resistance (daily close) : 1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778.
London Session Update
EUR/USD is little changed from the London open though the USD has retained a slight bid tone.
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Subtle US Dollar Strength In An Uncertain Market
Uncertainty seems to be the core theme in FX markets, with the USD stuck in limbo. With a busy week ahead, markets are taking a wait and see approach to pricing.
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GBP Falls After Slump In UK Retail Sales
The Pound fell against the dollar and euro on Thursday after UK data showed retail sales unexpectedly fell, raising doubts about economic recovery.
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Crude Oil To Hit $75 A Barrel
Crude Oil managed to hold above $70 a barrel for most of last week.
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JPY To Dominate Forex Trading This Week!
As Japan's economy is expected to rise out of the recession faster than many analysts anticipated, we have seen some renewed strength last week for the JPY, especially vs. the USD.
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Euro Weighed Down By Euro-Zone Banking Woes
Despite the EUR/USD rate reaching as high as 1.3982 last week, it now stands at 1.3910.
This comes about as the U.S. economy is currently healthier than Europe.
Forex Technical Analysis
The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating in the neutral territory.
However, the hourly chart's RSI is already floating in the over-sold territory, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent.
USD To Go Bullish On Weak Equity Market
The encouraging homes sales and manufacturing figures from the U.S. last Thursday helped boost confidence in the USD against the EUR.
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In Asia Most Indices Have Risen Overnight
On the week though, financial shares were marked by investors’ concern surrounding the White House’s plans to overhaul financial regulation.
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JPY Fell Against Most Of The Majors
The Japanese yen fell against most of the majors, but that was due primarily to gains in FX carry trades during the European trading session.
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CAD Ended Friday As The Weakest Of The Majors
The Canadian dollar ended Friday as the weakest of the majors after Statistics Canada said that retail sales tumbled 0.8 percent during April after rising throughout Q1.
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EUR, GBP Have Spent A Good Amount Of Time Consolidating
The euro and British pound didn’t see any major economic releases on Friday, and this will remain the case through much of next week.
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USD Ended The Day Mostly Lower
The US dollar ended the day mostly lower, gaining only against the Canadian dollar, as the currency remains in consolidation mode versus most of the majors.
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Asia Session Update
The trade week in Asia has started out amidst uncertainty, with traders concerned about the potential powder keg in Iran as well as the US FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
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USD Fell Across The Board On Friday
The greenback fell across the board on Friday as growing optimism that the global recession is easing dented dollar's safe-haven appeal.
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Currency Outlook
The US Treasury announced a record 104B of 2, 5 and 7 year notes would be auctioned off next week providing a bi weekly injection of cash so the record 1.8 Trillion Dollar deficit can be achieved.
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Back in The U.S.S.A.
Harry Browne, the former Libertarian Party candidate for president, used to say: “the government is great at breaking your leg, handing you acrutch, and saying ‘You see, without me you couldn't walk.'”
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US Equities Closed Broadly Unchanged On Friday
On Friday, most markets traded quite choppy, as the eco calendar was devoid of market moving data and due to triple-witching day, which may have added to the underlying volatility.
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More Reversal Activity For Massey Energy
The coal producer edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor was seen initiating a bullish reversal in the July contract.
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Treasuries For Sale Or Rent
Treasuries for sale or rent.
The buck ain’t worth but 50 cents. More rules, more czars, more debt.
The Economy Has Continued To Contract
The outcome of the June 23-24 FOMC meeting with regard to the federal funds rate is nearly certain.
The policy statement of April 29 (see excerpt below) is likely to show small modifications about growth and inflation prospects.
US Dollar Was Stronger In The Asian Session
The USD was stronger in the Asian session, as risk barometers, such as AUD, point to a decline in FX risk appetite.
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Czech Bonds Lost Slightly
The Czech koruna extended it gains against the euro on Friday as the EUR/CZK pair broke below the 26.32 resistance.
Forex Market Overview
The yen rose about a third of a yen to JPY95.78 from New York late Friday.
The unit also gained almost one yen to JPY133.17.
JPY Advanced Against The USD And EUR In Asia Monday
The Japanese yen advanced against the dollar and euro in Asia Monday as traders took profits on riskier currencies, taking their cue from lack luster Japanese stock markets, while adjusting positions before the coming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
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Sterling Will Pounce On Euro Should IFO Be Weak
Sterling managed to eke out a gain against dollar late on Friday as rumours over the fate of the ‘Golden State’ escorted the FX market into the weekend.
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Silver And Platinum Open Weaker
The dollar continued to lend direction to the precious complex Friday with the metals holding ground in their recent ranges.
Sideways trade was seen in most sectors with the CRB Index finishing the day 1.5% lower.
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USD Continued Its Fall As Risk Appetite Returned
The US dollar continued its fall as risk appetite returned to the market with the hope that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us.
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USD Weakened Until Late London
The dollar then rebounded off its 80 (DXY) low after the US navy reportedly intercepted a North Korean ship, but was still 0.4% lower on the day.
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Crude Oil Price Extends Friday's Decline
While gasoline demand worries continue to haunt, World Bank's forecast downgrade and USD's strength are key factors pressuring price lower.
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Forex Market Commentary
The euro gained ground vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4010 level and was supported around the $1.3885 level.
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The Stock Index Report
Many of the traders/brokers/analysts that we know took the day off as a precautionary measure; quadruple witching days can sometimes create unmanageable amounts of volatility.
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The Bond Bulletin
Treasuries spend the last two sessions of the week attempting to digest the erratic trade witnessed in the previous several weeks.
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EUR Has Dropped To Test 1.3870
Decline from 1.4015 high on Friday's U.S. session, has continued over Asian session, and from an opening price around 1.3950, the Euro has dropped to test 1.3870 support ahead of the European opening.
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GBP Has Tested 1.6505 Resistance Level
The Pound has tested 1.6505 resistance level and failure to break above there has driven the pair to levels below Asian session floor at 1.6450 support, to hit an inter-day low at 1.6410 so far.
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Sunday, June 21, 2009
JPY Forming A Small Continuation Figure
USD/JPY, still under bearish pressure, pair is forming a small continuation figure in the hourly, with base around 96.05.
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Friday, June 19, 2009
Currency Technical Perspective
Neutral leading to Bearish Hourly Sentiment is currently seen as Price finds very Slight Appreciation from the 1.3923 Daily Pivot, as a Failed 20SMA/200SMA Bullish Cross is seen.
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Silver Technical Outlook
With an intraday low in place at 13.93, outlook remains neutral for the moment.
Even though another fall cannot be ruled out, downside potential should be limited as correction from 16.25 is expected to be contained by 13.63 support.
London Session Update
Risk was back on the table today with stock markets pushing higher both in Asian and in Europe.
The AUD has benefitted from this sentiment, though in choppy conditions AUD/USD has failed to push beyond 0.8065.
Equity Markets Recovered On More Upbeat Economic Reports
Equity markets recovered yesterday as a string of stronger-than-expected data led to a recovery in risk appetite.
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Canadian Retail Sales Rose 0.1
Statistics Canada released their latest inflation report, and the results initially pushed the Canadian dollar higher, but a rebound in the US dollar later in the day cut those gains short.
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EUR/CHF Could Simply Remain Range Bound
The EUR/CHF experienced very choppy price action today, but ultimately ended the day higher after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced that they would be leaving their 3-month Libor target range unchanged at 0-0.75 percent, as expected, with the aim of bringing the rate down to the "lower part of the range" near 0.25 percent.
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JPY Fell Against The Majors
Some of the JPY crosses have been moving in lockstep with US equities, as both the DJIA and EURJPY gained at the start of the US trading session and spent most of the day consolidating the move.
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USD Ended The Day Mostly Higher
The US dollar ended the day mostly higher, losing only to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar because of demand for carry trades.
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Mixed But Generally Higher
Themarkets ended mixed but generally higher, although it was a ratherlackluster trading session and stocks didn't appear to make muchprogress, particularly on Nasdaq, where a lower SOX index put pressureon the NDX all day.
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Currency Outlook
Overnight news is sparse, and this pair is hanging out around 1.3950. We did have an unemployment report this morning that showed a drop of people on unemployment by 148,000, the most in 7 years.
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S And P 500 Consolidating
From an intraday perspective the S&P 500 emini futures contract appears to be consolidating or triangulating around the 912 level, ahead of one more pop that projects to 920-922 prior to a resumption of the dominant near-term downtrend.
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The Rebound On Global Bond Markets Halted
On Thursday, the rebound on global bond markets halted, as bonds were sold off following a batch of better than expected US eco data, firmer equities and supply pressures ahead of next week’s auctions.
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Maybe Oil Is Just Too Big To Fail
Maybe oil is just too big to fail?
Call the Fed! Call the President! The big bulls are still in control.
Costco Outs Busy
COST – Costco Wholesale Corp. – July 45 strike puts are attracting traders today where 17,700 contracts have so far been traded with premiums reaching 1.30 by this afternoon.
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LEI Rose 1.2% In May
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 1.2% in May after a revised 1.1% increase in the prior month.
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U.S Market Update
US equity indices are generally making the first real advances of the week as the blowout Philly Fed data prompts investors to buy stocks.
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Asian Session | Risk Appetite Returns Slowly
the British Bankers' Association (BBA) stated that it would allow more financial institutions to take part in the daily survey, which fixes the London interbank offered rate.
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Czech Koruna Decoupled From Other Regional Currencies
The Czech koruna decoupled from other regional currencies and firmed strongly yesterday.
The koruna gained more than a percent against the euro and the zloty too.
EUR Rose Slightly Against The JPY And USD In Quiet Asian Trading
The euro rose slightly against the yen and dollar in quiet Asian trading Friday as regional stocks ticked up, encouraging speculators to buy back riskier currencies such as the European currency.
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Forex Market Outlook
Saw the stocks rise yesterday in the US and through into Asia following better than expected jobless claims from the US. Stocks up again this morning in Europe at time of writing.
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Equities Finished Mostly Higher
Gold and the rest of the precious complex saw further range trade Thursday as mixed dollar flows were seen.
Both the CRB and GSC Indexes closed little changed while NYMEX crude finished the day up 34-cents at $71.37.
GBP Hurt By Retail Sales Fall
A surprise fall in a measure of High St activity in the UK sawGBP/EUR fall to a 1 week low while sterling also lost ground againstthe dollar and its other crosses.
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Forex Market Overview
The euro rose slightly against the yen and dollar in quiet Asian trading Friday as regional stocks ticked up, encouraging speculators to buy back riskier currencies such as the European unit.
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USD Higher On Better US ECO Data
On Thursday, EUR/USD held an almost perfect sideways trading range between 1.3900 and 1.4000, at least during the European trading hours.
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German May PPI Flat As Energy Prices Rebound
German producer prices were unchanged in May and fell 3.6% from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office, Destatis, reported Friday.
That is almost exactly in line with an advance survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires.
U.S. Leading Index Jumped 1.2% Last Month
The May index of leading indicators offered more signs that the U.S. economy has moved closer to recovery.
The leading index jumped 1.2% last month, after April's index increase was revised to 1.1%, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
Euro Has Risen To Reach Levels Close To 1.3950
The Euro has appreciated during Asian session and, after having declined to 1.3870 low on late U.S. session, the Euro has risen to reach levels close to 1.3950 at the time of writing.
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GBP/USD Bounced Yesterday At 1.6185
GBP/USD bounced yesterday at 1.6185 low ahead of the U.S. session opening, to reach levels right below 1.6400 on the back of U.S. macroeconomic figures.
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USD Has Rallied During Asian Session
The Dollar has rallied during Asian session and, after bouncing at 95.50 kow yesterday, the pair has reached levels right below 97.00 ahead of the European session opening times.
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AUD Rallied Yesterday
The Australian dollar rallied yesterday from 0.79100 low to test 0.8055/65 resistance atrea, which failed to give way and the pair pulled back to levels right below 0.8000 to bounce again during Asian session to attempt another assault to 0.8055/65 area at there moment of writing.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Forex Technical Outlook
Intra-day support is now formed on the 1.3900/20 level as the euro managed to recover initial losses on yesterday.
While holding above 1.3900, the upside will remain favored and the resistance on the 1.4000 handle should stay on focus.
Forex Thoughts
Dollar-Swiss broke past the Support at 1.0788 and is now looking bearish for a fall towards 1.0700 or even 1.1650.
But if this break just turns out to be a spike, it may opt to continue to range between 1.0788-1.0865.
Gold Technical Outlook
Gold recovers mildly after dipping to 926.5.
With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, an intraday low should be in place and outlook is turned neutral for the moment.
EUR/USD Technical Report
Euro is forming an uptrend after the reach of 1,3800, that led to the first important resistance levels at 1,3930-40.
This leaves us cautious regarding the decline resumption to lower levels and the top formation.
FX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008).
Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA,Read More ...
Currency Technical Perspective
Slightly Bullish Hourly Sentiment is currently seen as Price finds Appreciation and Dynamic Support from the 20SMA despite being in an Accumulation Range between Daily Static Support at 1.3910 Daily Pivot and Daily Dynamic Resistance at 1.3979.
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Currency Outlook
Economic reports from both side of the Atlantic confirmed that business activity is lagging.
The Euro exports were 1.3%less than March, and down 26$ to the UK and 21% to the US from year ago.
Bond Yields And EUR/USD Higher
Equity markets started yesterday on a weak note but the US market made a comeback during the evening ending the session broadly unchanged.
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NZDUSD Bearish Below .6480
Euro / US Dollar
Staying below 1.4181 keeps the trend pointed down.
The series of lower highs and lows since 1.4340 may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
The Nasdaq 100 Still Gained 12.64 Today
The markets ended mixed after some intraday volatility.
They were down in the morning, held near the 1440 area on the NDX and 904 on the S&P 500 and then bounced in a 5-wave move over the next several hoursRead More ...
Greenback Comes Under Pressure
USD was unable to gain on the increase in risk aversion as multiple factors weighed.
Oil jumped as US inventories dropped by 3.9M.
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USD Declines Against Major Currencies On Low U.S. Inflation Data
The greenback fell against euro and other major currencies as a smaller-than-expected rise in U.S. inflation diminished speculations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate to curb inflation risk.
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USD Is clearly Coasting On Its Legacy
This week, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) conspicuously gathered in Moscow for their first-ever economic summit.
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Global Bonds Gained Further Ground
On Wednesday, global bonds gained further ground, but closed off the intraday highs, as US equities showed some resilience despite the downgrade by S&P of 22 US banks.
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CPI Inflation Dropped
In May, CPI inflation dropped to an annual -1.3% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for a softer decline (-0.9% Y/Y).
On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1% M/M, while an increase by 0.3% M/M was expected.
China Fund Sees Brisk Two Way Action
The Chinese ETF is higher by less than 1% to stand at $37.35, but we noticed a number of investors getting long of protective put options in the July contract.
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The Oil Market Gave Back Its US Dollar Inspired Gains
Green shoots or overshoots.
Sometimes you feel like a green shoot other times you feel like a weed.
The Consumer Price Index Edged Up 0.1%
Inflation is not and will not be a top priority in Fed policy decisions in the near term. Inflation is a lagging economic indicator which peaks long after a recession is underway and gathers steam long after an expansion is visible.
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The CPI Data Has Enabled Bond Bulls
US equity markets are having trouble finding any real momentum one way or another this morning.
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CEE Currencies Stayed In A Tight Trading Range Yesterday
Despite the much better than expected outcome of the April current account, it did not trigger a big price action in the Czech koruna, which was traded in a tight range close the 26.7 level.
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Trading Currencies Report
The euro continued to rise against the dollar and yen in Asia Thursday as the region's investors became more optimistic towards the European economy after recent data, and more risk tolerance as crude oil prices moved higher.
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Bank Of England Minutes Dent Pound Prospects
Sterling was the worst performing of the majors yesterday as the Bank of England (BoE) minutes showed that policy makers voted unanimously to continue the asset protection scheme despite the recent economic optimism.
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Platinum Ran Into Liquidation
Despite silver dipping below $14/oz gold and silver closed Wednesday with modest gains as the dollar turned lower on upbeat risk appetite.
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Forex Market Overview
The euro continued to rise against the dollar and yen in Asia Thursday as the region's investors became more optimistic toward the European economy after recent data, and more risk tolerant on higher crude oil prices.
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EUR/USD Moved Higher
On Wednesday, EUR/USD hovered up and down in the 1.38/139 area but in the end, the single currency won the battle.
This was a bit remarkable as stock markets were under pressure for most of the time.
The EUR Remains Supported By A Weaker USD
The US dollar tumbled further after a slower rise in U.S. inflation during May, which suggested that U.S. interest rates will remain low for now.
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RBOB Gasoline Price Dropped -1.9%
Buying interest emerged after crude oil plunged to as low as 69 in NY session Wednesday and the benchmark contract rose to settle +0.8% higher at 71.03.
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The Dollar Index Fell Around 0.6%
Risk soggy, but dollar sold. US equities were mixed, tech shares doing well (Nasdaq up 1.0%) but Standard & Poor’s downgrades of 22 US banks hurting the bank index (3.8% lower), and the S&P500 closed unchanged.
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The Stock Index Report 06.18.2009
Stock index futures didn't let a near 50 point drop in four sessions influence trade.
The market opened up weak and the bears quickly thwarted several attempts at a short covering rally.
The Bond Bulletin
Bonds and notes have been nearly as relentless on the upside as they were on the downside.
It seems as though the light summer volume has aided one sided trade.
Euro Zone Trade Surplus Increased In April
The euro zone's balance in trade in goods with the rest of the world increased in April to the largest surplus since October 2007, boosted by trade in manufactured goods, data from the European Union's statistics agency showed Wednesday.
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Australia Business Confidence Improves In 2Q
Australian business confidence improved markedly in the second quarter of 2009, a private sector survey showed Thursday, although export and employment indicators remain subdued.
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The UK Claimant Count Jobless Rate Rose To 4.8%
The increase in the claimant count measure of U.K. unemployment slowed significantly in May, offering fresh evidence that the worst of the recession has past, official data showed Wednesday.
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The Euro Rallied In Wednesday's Late U.S. Session
EUR/USD has continued its appreciation from 1.3745 low on Tuesday, to reach prices right below 1.4000 ahead of European session opening, to pare loses from Monday's sell off.
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GBP/USD Still Inside The Descendant Channel
Sterling regain the upside at early Europe Session
“GBP/USD, still inside the descendant channel we mention yesterday, pair regain the upside early Europe, still unable to break above the rook first dynamic resistance for today, now around 1.6430,”
USD/JPY Dropped To Levels Below 96.00
USD/JPY: Dollar, below 96.00 near two-weeks low
Decline from Monday's high at 98.60 has extended on Asian session as the USD/JPY dropped to levels below 96.00, to trade between 95.50 and 96.00, approaching the lowest levels of the last two weeks.
USD/CHF Has Begun To Fall
USD/CHF's rejection at 1.0925 drives the pair close to 1.0850
After climbing 95 pips from 1.0830 to post intra-day hig at 1.0925 in the early European morning, the USD/CHF has begun to fall below to 1.0900 level to post 1.0850 in the American session.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Forex Thoughts 06.17.2009
Dollar-Swiss has fallen during the day and our Limit Buy order at 1.0850 has got executed. We would aniticpate an increase.
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EUR/USD Technical Report 06.17.2009
Euro rose yesterday reaching the higher resistance level we had set on our yesterday’s analysis (1,3940-60) and then declined again towards 1,3800.
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Forex Technical Analysis 06.17.2009
EUR/USD
Current level-1.3910
EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008).
The AUD Fell For A Fourth Day Against The USD
The AUD and NZD dipped towards the lowest level in three weeks against the JPY after the S&P 500 Index had its biggest two-day loss since April, decreasing demand for higher-yielding assets.
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JPY Experiences Mixed Results Against Major Currencies
The Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the other major currencies.
The JPY was broadly unchanged versus the EUR yesterday and closed its trading session at around the 133.50 level.
Crude Oil Prices Stable Near $70
Oil fell during yesterday's trading session and closed around $70.60; giving back early gains as worries about the ailing world economy persist.
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Forex Technical Analysis 06.17.2009
EUR/USD
This pair has been range-trading between 1.4150 and 1.3750 for the past few days and doesn't seem to have much clear direction.
Euro Rises On Positive Economic Data
The EUR experienced a bullish day of trading yesterday against the USD, mainly due to the German ZEW economic expectation figure.
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US Dollar Erratic From Mixed Signals
The USD dropped against most of its major currency rivals yesterday, pressured by Russian angling for a new global reserve currency.
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London Session Update 06.17.2009
Further falls in stock markets is suggestive of more risk being taken off the table today as the market worries about the strength of the 'green shoots' of recovery.
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GBP May Dominate Today's Market
The British Pound rose against the greenback and edged up to its highest level this year against the euro on Tuesday after data showed UK inflation fell less than forecast in May.
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Risk Appetite Continues To Decline
Equity markets fell for the second day in a row yesterday sending S&P500 down by 1.3%.
In Asia the S&P future has been broadly unchanged, while most Asian indices are showing losses.
EUR Consolidates Latest Setbacks Ahead Of Next Drop
EUR/USD
The much talked about head & shoulders top developing over the past few weeks has finally triggered on Monday and now projects additional declines towards 1.3250 over the coming weeks.
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Currency Outlook 06.17.2009
What a difference a day makes.
Yesterday, at thistime, the pair was at the cusp of a downward plunge that took us under oldspike lows and elicited stops under 1.3800.
The SPX And NDX Rallied Right Near Resistance
The stock market indices closed at the lows for the day going away after an early rally attempt failed. It was the second down-day in a row, as the downside follow-through broke some key levels, and the indices had some key rally failures early on near resistance.
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BRIC Meeting Hurts USD
USD was very strong in Asia as the Nikkei slumped from the opening following the negative lead from America.
In Europe, talk that Russia would be discussing the USD at the BRIC meeting sent the Euro bouncing and it was not until weakness in US stocks that the USD could recover.
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USD Falls Broadly As Russian Shifted Reserve Currency View
The U.S. currency fell against a basket of currencies after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev commented ahead of Brazil, Russia, India and China summit, so-called BRIC, that the existing reserve currencies, including the U.S. dollar
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US Housing Starts Jump In May
Both US housing starts and permits surprised on the upside of expectations in May.
Housing starts rose by 17.2% M/M from a downwardly revised 454 000 to 532 000, while an outcome of 485 000 was expected.
